GENIUS FORUMS

Pick one. JR Lowel:"He who is firmly seated in power soon learns to think that security, and not progress, is the highest form of statecraft." Since Bush has had no idea of what progress is, he has always pushed security. But progress to the GOP is unthinkable.

The USA, with 5% of the global population, has been using 25% of the global resources. The rest of the world is catching on, but hasnt yet figured out what to do about it. Since power elites never read history, but only make it, we can extrapolate from where we are to where we will be in the near, or mid term.

After an empire is maxed, and progress levels off, the power elites, rather than cutting back to buy more time to look for new ways to increase the resource base, instead increase their exploitation of all lower classes so as to keep the perks coming in at ever higher levels to provide them with the illusion of "progress".

Another tactic is to shed unprofitable provinces [failed states], and redirect the resources that formerly went to them towards the great power centers. This works until some unnoticed, but critical resource, from a shed province creates problems. The regions shed to barbarism and anarchy also create border problems.

The draconian efforts to deal with that tend to permeate the whole empire, and that in turn reduces innovation and increases conspiracies and violent insurrection, most especially in the less affluent regions. Oh, the *appearance* of innovation continues, but only benefits the market elites, part of the increased exploitation cited above.

Wallace, in his Anthro classic, "Culture & Personality" noted that when a system is on the skids, and the coping skills of the masses no longer work, they engage in "magical thinking". thus, for example, the rise in wicca, astrology, & religious fundamentalism- which focuses on the next world, cause this one is a lost cause. The level of zealotry in partisan politics also increases along with the perception of a general decline in morals.

Gibbon noted that while the retention of morals is necessary to sustain a republic, every effort to restore morals to a republic that had once lost them- has failed. The result, in keeping with the foregoing extrapolation of increased exploitation by the power elite is either tyranny, and/or anarchy, perhaps one followed by the other depending on where you are.

And ultimately, it all traces back to the problem of resource mismanagement. The nuclear family works so long as the resources needed to buy, heat, cool, & furnish a house are affordable. Already we see young people move back in with their parents, whose house is already paid for- because they cant afford to live anywhere else. Smart young women are putting off child bearing because they dont see the resources to properly support kids, and aware they soon will be supporting their parents instead.

Stupid young women dont see that far ahead, and are out breeding everyone else. They are *NOT* giving birth to the next generation of teachers, nurses, family counselors, or the rest of the social safety net class, and the case loads are already going thru the roof.

The only alternative is a return to the hominid style of communal living they evolved with over the course of countless previous generations before the rise of cities. Archeology shows us that the most stable system, such as the Mosou of SW China have had for 100's of years, is where the grandmothers own communal houses and provide childcare while the adults manage the resource base to support them all.

If Americans are to get by on the 5% fair share of global resources, they will have to return to the communal household with one central heat/air system, one kitchen, one sauna, one swimming pool, and set of appropriate fueled vehicles. Otherwise, they will have to send troops to defend the supply of various resources in other regions with all the costs that entails to be able to reliably import the rest of what they need.

That system is breaking down because the middle class no longer makes the money to afford both the cost of entitlements, imports and the military to secure the sources. It'd be wise for the rich to foot the bill, but they dont read history, so they dont know that. Since the middle class no longer makes the money, they've been *borrowing* it.

And, as Machiavlli noted, since the republics are corrupted by the rich, and cannot tax the rich for the money they need to meet what we now call 'entitlement', they borrow the money from the power elite. which works until some creditor sees that the tax base will no longer service the debt, much less pay it off, and refuses to lend more. At which point, Mach says, there is systemic collapse.

Now, I dont expect my comments here to have any effect whatever on the natural progression of events. But merely present this to those who are rational enough to consider these effects. and therefore network with friends and family to do what they can, wherever they want, to improve their *own* security in the event of systemic failure. At the very least, they can dramatically reduce their own per capita cost of living, and therefore take up careers that may make less money, but buy more happiness.

The desire for progress causes just as much harm as the desire to maintain the status quo, since both progress and the status quo are illusions.

There are many, many things wrong with the structure of the American nation, and you are correct in observing that it goes all the way from the individual, through to his ideal living scenario, and up to the highest levels of statecraft. It is filled with holes at all points: when it collapses, it will collapse at all points. You are incorrect in thinking that the problem is merely one of resource management, or boils down to any single error.

The philosophic, economic, and political beliefs of the continent were simply unable to handle the invention of a new series of countries on a new continent. Europe was not mature enough to be handed America on a silver platter: it was a full-scale attempt at founding a new continent, and it was a disaster. The entire world suffers from problems that stem from the American Founding Fathers and compound unchecked through the entire bureacracy and history of the nation up to the present day.

There are many hints in history as to what direction America should take: they could revolve into a new state, like France; they could collapse under the weight of responsibility and let their descendents resolve the crisis, like Rome; they could pacify themselves, like the Mongol hordes of China when they encountered Buddhism; or they could even humble themselves before the judgement of the world like no nation in history has ever willingly done, and let the UN do to them what they did to Iraq.

The Nine Inch Nails album, Year Zero, is about what America might be like about 15 years from now. It is very harsh.

Trevor Salyzyn wrote: It is filled with holes at all points: when it collapses, it will collapse at all points.

Kinda like how the World Trade Center went down?

There are many hints in history as to what direction America should take: they could revolve into a new state, like France;

Right now, too many people believe in America, and there is no vision of something better it could change in to. But this could change, and could even change very quickly. Right now, the only people I know of that would support an actual revolution are extreme right-wing (or left-wing) - nothing that could gain general public support today.

I wonder if there is an abuse of power that is big enough that, if it came to light, would shock the American public enough to demand real action. The American public is pretty jaded about political corruption. Most Americans are more concerned with celebrity gossip than with politics.

they could collapse under the weight of responsibility and let their descendents resolve the crisis, like Rome;

This could be a slow devolution rather than a sudden collapse, which is what I expect to happen. People will adjust to a series of changes. But it's possible that a bunch of things will become critical at once - energy problems; food shortages; water shortages; political crisis; economic crisis; natural disasters and climate change. If a lot of stuff comes to a head at the same time, it could be extremely ugly - your "collapse at all points" scenario.


Given a "collapse at all points" situation in the US, what would happen with the rest of the world? At the least, there would be a world wide economic crisis. What would happen politically?