Glostik91 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 02, 2019 11:27 amI have given you everything you need in order to figure it out. Do you not find it humiliating to be spoonfed?
Being able to provide clear arguments for your position is part of a discussion. Just providing warnings is a form of frothing at the mouth....
Why do you think the federal reserve has halted raising interest rates?
Rates averaged 5.69 percent from 1971-2019, reaching 20 percent in 1980 and a low of 0.25 percent in 2008.
They are 2.5 now after rising steadily from 0.5 in 2016.
source
The pause expressed hesitation in light of global developments all increasing the uncertainty. It might hinge as well on the ability to make new deals between US and China, then US and Russia. In the sideline as well deals with North Korea and Iran. All in the balance right now.
Why do you think the United States, public and private, has such an incredibly large amount of debt?
Because the US think they are awesome and will be even more awesome in the future. They share that vision with many around the globe who trade in that debt (and inflated credit space) and together they slice the pie and divide it. It's a win-win for those involved.
What's the production/consumption ratio for the United States and China?
The discussion about the dangers of large prolonged trade imbalances is not new and pops up now and again around every crisis period. Or are you referring perhaps to reserves-to-production ratio?
In any case, the trade ratio is off since a long while for the US (but not for China vs the world). Likely China will solve the dispute on short term by importing more US oil and some other goods which will be in time for US election campaigns to claim to have "restored" some of the economy.
The reality of the issues you are describing can only be addressed by opening borders, increase immigration, changing the life style food print of the average "classical" US worker and create more division of income in society (unless socialism would be imposed). The same is happening in Europe with the difference that consumption never really grew that high post WW2 for many reasons.
The shifts occurring in the United States will have backlashes with various populist movements trying to seek alternative solutions. And perhaps some will be found but overall change and transition will not be stopped. One thing that will never be allowed is large scale panic and distrust as all major global players lose in that case.
And I think you are miscalculating the future with such grave warnings. Most of all, in worst case, you won't escape the changes buying food and moving away to sit it all out. The downturn your propose will not be short and it won't be that different wherever you move to in the US.