Alex Jacob wrote:I don't mean to change the subject, but I am curious, Mr Hodges, as you seem to keep aware of markets and such and have investments and seem to have a handle on current affairs, as to where you think the economy is going, or what looms ahead? Also, in your view, what are the best investments? (If we have to create another thread I wouldn't mind).
There is no one best investment for everyone. It depends on your situation and your goals. Also, you can not always get good advice from professionals, as they have their own biases and may get commissions on some things but not others. It's best to understand it yourself, reading up on economics and investing.
Having said that.. the number one rule in investing is to diversify. If you are just getting started, a good thing to do is look for no-load index funds. These follow an index such as the S&P, and are not actively managed. They already are fairly well diversified.
As to where the economy is heading... at this point I can only say that there is a lot of uncertainty. I feel the American economy has dug itself into a pretty deep hole, and I don't know how it's going to get out of it. The dollar will likely to continue to devalue relative to other currencies, so it's probably a good time to invest in foreign markets, and possibly hard assets (e.g., gold bullion) whose value is not dependent on the dollar.
People have been predicting the collapse of the American economy since Carter's "American Malaise", if not before. But you'd have to be nuts not to worry. But somehow, they have figured out how to manipulate the price of gold too. I know that 16 months ago, the big four precious metals houses colluded, and the price of silver went from 15$ to 9$/oz over night.
This is illegal, its become obvious, but the FEC has done nothing. A wiser choice would be to go to a small town feed mill and buy 50lb sacks of grain, and maybe start raising chickens in your back yard. You can turn garbage into eggs augmented with a little grain. The problem with grain usta be vermin. But you can store it in steel trashcans, and just before putting the lid on the can, setting a tablespoon of sulphur ablaze in a dish or tin- resting it on top of the grain when you put the lid on. The resulting sulphur dioxide will kill any insects or eggs that mite be in the grain. It'll store like that for years.
The price has doubled in the past year. The USDA website says that current global stock, at 57 days, is just barely enuf to last until the next harvest. If anything happens to that because of global warming or whatever, the price of grain will go thru the roof, way higher than gold. And you cant eat gold. or stocks.
daybrown wrote:I know that 16 months ago, the big four precious metals houses colluded, and the price of silver went from 15$ to 9$/oz over night.
Sixteen months ago would have been around Sept 2006. Looking at the charts, I see a drop there from about $13 to $10.75 over about a week. Is that what you are referring to?
You do make a good point - any commodity can have large price shifts for reasons that are not entirely rational or market-driven. It's not wise to get involved in a market that you do not understand. (Something about Holland and tulip bulbs comes to mind, and let's not forget this.)
A wiser choice would be to go to a small town feed mill and buy 50lb sacks of grain, and maybe start raising chickens in your back yard.
What is a wise investment is something that an individual must determine for himself - it depends on your particular situation and goals. By buying grain, you are making a particular bet - that grain prices will increase drastically in the short term (since you can only store it for a few years). This may be reasonable for one person, but not another. I can't say it won't happen, but the chances are not that great. It is definitely not the foundation of a balanced portfolio, which is generally going to consist mainly of financial instruments of some type, not physical goods.
If anything happens to that because of global warming or whatever, the price of grain will go thru the roof, way higher than gold. And you cant eat gold. or stocks.
How much grain can you store? Do you enjoy making stuff directly from grains? How much are you willing to bet on that particular outcome?
Storing grain might be reasonable (especially as a backup plan) if your sole goal is survival. But most people are more interested in preserving and growing wealth, while minimizing risk. While the risk of catastrophic global warming (or governmental collapse, etc.) is not negligible, it should not be the sole consideration.
Polite discourse appreciated. IIRC, the silver scam was in July. One of my correspondents said he lost 20 grand on the deal. I didnt know I knew anyone with that much money.
But as for grain. You can sprout it. That changes starches into sugars, so all you need is a warm room and a damp cloth to have a tasty but highly nutritious treat. Or- you can then dry the spouts, crush them, pour them in a vat and add some wine to ferment them. Not hard to get beer outta this.
Or- if you have a solar or other hot cooker, you can distill it, and end up with moonshine that you can drink and/or drive on. One thing that always sold in trying times was rum and whiskey. And of course, you can feed the leftover mash to chickens, pigs, or other livestock.
Now, I do, in fact, have my own antique handcranked grain mill. The bread you get with freshly ground grain is much tastier because soon as you grind it, unless you filter out all the bran, endosperm, etc to just leave white flour, all those other parts oxidize and taste crappy. Besides damaging some of the high quality protein. Even with the smaller hand mills they sell, it only takes 10 minutes of vigorous exercise with your arm muscles to produce a pound of flour, and you prolly need to get the heart rate up for a while anyway.
And yes, the stuff would be boring. But a 50lb sack will prolly provide the carbs to keep your ass in good shape until spring when you can get out there an plant the rest of a garden. Lots of us descended from thousands of years of Yeoman farmers who got thru the winter on grain and saurkraut (vitamin C). That's a real big deal too. 7000 years ago, "LBK ware" spread all over Europe, and there are cadres of academics who can discuss the nuances of decoration, but what they all dont seem to know, is that these 'beakers' are kraut crocks.
The thing about this is that its just so cheap. Whether you make bread or alcoholic beverages, its a more engaging hobby than stacking gold coins. You can make a side line out of it in a matter of months, or even a decent business that could prove really rewarding in a post economic crash local market.
And if the shit really hits the fan, its worth remembering that nobody ever burns down a distillery or hassles the brewmeisters.
daybrown wrote: The bread you get with freshly ground grain is much tastier because soon as you grind it, unless you filter out all the bran, endosperm, etc to just leave white flour, all those other parts oxidize and taste crappy. Besides damaging some of the high quality protein.
I actually made bread from (store-bought) flour a few weeks back. I wanted to see what was involved in it, if I could make an edible loaf. For a first try, I'd say it wasn't bad; better than a store-bought loaf. I'd probably die if I had to live on saurkraut, though.
The beer-brewing is a good idea. I would like to try that. Making harder liquor is of course illegal, and if there is one crew you don't want showing up at your door, it's the ATF.
But as for grain. You can sprout it. That changes starches into sugars, so all you need is a warm room and a damp cloth to have a tasty but highly nutritious treat. Or- you can then dry the spouts, crush them, pour them in a vat and add some wine to ferment them. Not hard to get beer outta this.
Beer is easy to make. I used to do it all the time.
Hey d.b. - Did I read on one of your links something about the Amanita Muscaria? Did you read The Sacred Mushroom and The Cross by John Allegro (1970)? Very provocative.
The beer-brewing is a good idea. I would like to try that. Making harder liquor is of course illegal, and if there is one crew you don't want showing up at your door, it's the ATF.
They don't know how strong you make your beer. I used to make beer all the time. I am a recovering alcoholic, so it's a no-no at the present time, but jacking up the alcohol content of your beer is a snap. Just add more corn sugar. You can get kits that will mimic any branded beer you like if you go to a good supply store. If you are willing to do the work and can be a little patient, the beer ends up costing as little as the cheapest beer you can buy, just about. And you can make it to your own taste. Adding the extra dextrose can result in something like a John Adams with a shot or two of vodka.
I just edited this. Listen to me, saying "if you go to a good beer supply store." This shows you how long it's been since I made any. These days, of course, you can buy all that good stuff online.
But as for grain. You can sprout it. That changes starches into sugars, so all you need is a warm room and a damp cloth to have a tasty but highly nutritious treat. Or- you can then dry the spouts, crush them, pour them in a vat and add some wine to ferment them. Not hard to get beer outta this.
Beer is easy to make. I used to do it all the time.
Hey d.b. - Did I read on one of your links something about the Amanita Muscaria? Did you read The Sacred Mushroom and The Cross by John Allegro (1970)? Very provocative.
Never heard of it. By accident, I came across ethnobotanist RG Wasson's "Persephone's Quest" in which he researches it, and finds that Ugarit Shamen are still using it.
I have watched for it in my neck of Ozark woods ever since. Got 1/2 pound last October. Have used it in ritual several times, most recently on the last full moon, and expect to use it again on the next. From Wasson, it seems like it takes you liver a couple weeks to properly handle the toxins without adverse health risks. There's never been an "Amanita" addict. Use it every day for a week, and you'll die of liver failure.
But there are several places where you can order it online. Since it is wild, the potency varies, but a good bet is to start with 1 gram of dried shroom for every 25lb of body weight. From Wasson, I figured out that you slather the dry shroom with butter or some other animal fat. The fatty acids in it neutralize the fatty alkaloids in the shrooms which notoriously upset stomachs.
Stay away from the beer or any alcohol 24 hours before ritual. The alcohol breaks down the fatty coating on the inside of the intestines, and then you'll get so sick you'll think you will die. But you wont. You will just wish you were dead. Christians, of course, have always been habitual alcohol consumers, so they assumed it made everyone sick.
Back in the early 1970's there were lotsa books about various entheogenic potions; but they should have made clear how use destroys faith in Jesus. Christian parents picked on this and their congressmen made all the potions they knew about illegal on that account. They didnt bother with Amanita cause they thot it was so poisonous that there was no need.
Ironic that they banned all the sacred potions of all native traditions except that of Native Europeans. And since there's no way to grow the shrooms commercially, there was no cash cow for the lawyers to go after. Amanita Muscaria has some kind of parasitic action on the roots of pine trees. There's over 1000 acres of Loblolly pine plantation next to me.
But you just about have to live in the woods to find any. It only sends up the shrooms when the moisture and temperature levels are correct. In my neck of Ozark woods, this is a couple weeks after an October rain.
Never heard of it. By accident, I came across ethnobotanist RG Wasson's "Persephone's Quest" in which he researches it, and finds that Ugarit Shamen are still using it.
The Sacred Mushroom and the Cross hypothesizes that Christianity is based on the ritualistic use of the Amanita Muscaria (fly agaric) mushroom by early Christian sects. The cross symbol was what they used to communicate about meetings, the cross being a sumbol for the mushroom.
The author, John Allegro, is a language scholar and semanticist who laboriously backs up his thesis by analyzing the greek versions of scriptures and early gnostic writing.
It's not as far-fetched when you follow his arguments closely.
Books like Vine of the Soul and Food of the Gods have influenced me immensely.
Some points make so much sense. Such as, the Amanita mushroom looks like no other food - it looks like a miniature penis. It also can appear overnight after a rain. Both these facts tend to imbue it with otherworldly status. Not to mention that it does someting to the eater that few other naturally occurring edibles do, namely, enable visionary experiences.
The variation of A. Muscaria that grows in India is much larger and more potent than the variation found in the New World. It is the basis for Soma, the nectar of the Gods in the Vedas.
An interesting fact about the Amanita is that the urine expelled by the taker of the mushroom contains the active ingredients unchanged. It was common for lower caste Indian people to follow around the Brahmin caste priests who took Soma and collect their urine in wooden bowls for their own use.
But there are several places where you can order it online
I haven't seen that, but then I haven't actively looked, either.
I know you can purchase psilocybin mushroom spores, but not the dried or fresh mushroom itself, because the spores contain no banned substance.
Have you read Plants of the Gods: Their Sacred, Healing, and Hallucinogenic Powers by Hoffmann and Schultes? By all means, get yourself a copy. It is the book on enthoegens. I have read a lot of them and this one is my favorite. It is beautifully illustrated and gives the historical use and influence of every naturally occurring entheogenic substance, from peyote to ayahuasca.
In "Persephone's Quest" Wasson traces the Vedic potion Soma, and finds Ugarit shamen still using it. I dunno about the A. Muscaria in India- since you can order it online, I've tried it from Portugal, Oregon, & Lithuania, and expect others have done so, so that now, the spores are all over the world. I think global warming and acid rain affects it also.
I usta see, and enjoy, the red variety with the white scales, but in recent years have seen much more of a totally white strain that you mite think was Phalloides, but it has the same white scales, like pieces of styrofoam stuck on it. Really big too, caps 7 or 8 inches across.
Wasson also wrote "The Road to Eleusis", in which he has a chapter by Hoffman that supports his contention that the sacred potion of the Eleusinian Mysteries, "Kykeion" was made of barley all right, but the barley was infected with Claviceps Purpurea, an ergot, and according to Hoffman, has lotsa lysergic acids in it. The Greeks were acid heads.
More recently, I've read of an archaeological dig at a ritual site in which they think a legume was used; but in any case, there were several powerful compounds in use, and yes, what you say of Christianity certainly makes sense. I had a copy of the Nag Hammadi, and parts of that were... trippy. Jesus was not your savior, but shows you how to become your own savior. I can see how the church took a dim view.
But whatever the sacred potion, it can create your own world with the reality you want to fulfill your Kharma. If that includes total global economic collapse, then so it will be. My experience with it has been that it always looks like it will come apart, but it never does. Like a cliff hanger TV series. Tune in tomorrow... Because of stuff like Murphy's law, that which I prepare for is not what happens. I go out of my way in innumerable ways, and that way, the whole system just keeps on keeping on.
Because of stuff like Murphy's law, that which I prepare for is not what happens. I go out of my way in innumerable ways, and that way, the whole system just keeps on keeping on.
So maybe you're our saviour, d.b.? Think about it. The more disasters you prepare for, the more that won't ever happen. I wondered why the system just keeps keeping on.
Because of stuff like Murphy's law, that which I prepare for is not what happens. I go out of my way in innumerable ways, and that way, the whole system just keeps on keeping on.
So maybe you're our saviour, d.b.? Think about it. The more disasters you prepare for, the more that won't ever happen. I wondered why the system just keeps keeping on.
Oh, there are legions of us, buying insurance we'll never need, paying for new tires just before the engine blows, and not finding the termite damage til after you finished painting the house.
I remember Bill, tilling up and liming the pasture just like the ag agent says, then seeding it in April so the grass'll have time to develop deep roots before summer drought kills it... but then seeing 7 inches of rain wash all that work into the creek.
Then, a couple months later, that rich bastard Steve, disks up an even steeper slope, seeds it, and the rains come in late June an all thru July like we never seen before, and he put 3 dozen head on that 40 in September. Course we all, who just struggle keeping on, knew he's always been a smart businessman.
Michael Shedlock makes a convincing case for a deflationary (money supply constriction) recession/depression, instead of (hyper)inflationary. 1929 Revisted and other articles on his site
brad walker wrote:Michael Shedlock makes a convincing case for a deflationary (money supply constriction) recession/depression, instead of (hyper)inflationary. 1929 Revisted and other articles on his site
Thanx Brad. Worthhile links. But neither of them discuss the worst case scenario, TEOTWAWKI, which is a real risk in downturn, such as they see, sliding all the way to hell in a basket. The dissolution of the Untied States of Denial would result, form among other things, the devaluation of the currency to the point that the troops and law enforcement officers would not be motivated to perform rewarded with only nice lithographs of dead presidents.
Neither the government, nor anyone else, has enuf gold and silver to motivate them either, nor the infrastructure needed to transport precious metal paychecks from some vault to the personnel.
brad walker wrote:Michael Shedlock makes a convincing case for a deflationary (money supply constriction) recession/depression, instead of (hyper)inflationary. 1929 Revisted and other articles on his site
brad walker wrote:Michael Shedlock makes a convincing case for a deflationary (money supply constriction) recession/depression, instead of (hyper)inflationary. 1929 Revisted and other articles on his site
Thanx Brad. Worthhile links. But neither of them discuss the worst case scenario, TEOTWAWKI, which is a real risk in downturn, such as they see, sliding all the way to hell in a basket. The dissolution of the Untied States of Denial would result, form among other things, the devaluation of the currency to the point that the troops and law enforcement officers would not be motivated to perform rewarded with only nice lithographs of dead presidents.
Neither the government, nor anyone else, has enuf gold and silver to motivate them either, nor the infrastructure needed to transport precious metal paychecks from some vault to the personnel.
Like the marijuana, cocaine enterprises, the police will turn their guns on those private citizens who "own" gold, bracelets, one ounce ingots, whatever.
When the stomach is growling and you gotta feed your family (or yourself) , the gold coins will come out and the cops will be there with guns drawn - their family are hungry too!
This shell game has been going on before we knew what was what.
ps- Direct election of Senators, Income Tax, Fedeal Reserve = a triple whammy.
Agreed that its hard to underestimate the total stupidity, but you dont feed a family with gold, but food. And with that, YMMV enormously depending on the area. Some areas produce a lot of food, some none.
There will be those who have food that wont be selling it for any amount of gold if it gets that bad. After all, after the rubble quits bouncing, its the survivors who will own all the gold.
It may not come to that either, because no matter how bad it looks, the USA is still a major global food producer, and the power elites will want to keep American agribusiness in business so that food riots in their own homelands dont result in them being dragged out to be shot. And to keep agribusiness growing food will require the complex infrastucture support of fuel, tractor parts, petrochemicals, and- trains or barges to haul it to the ports.
Of the current presidential candidates, Huckabee, coming from an agricultural state, seems like the only one who might understand the power. Chinese and Japanese negotiators have often come to Arkansas because of the rice and soybeans. I dunno if it was his idea, but a bigger barge terminal was built recently on the Arkansas river with an eye on future production.
I expect barges will be coming down from OK & KS with grain, but then go back up with giant wind turbine blades from the new factory on the river at Little Rock. I dunno if Huck had anything to do with that either. He does claim some credit for improving the road system, and since he took office, I noted the water lines being put in all over the Ozarks, which really looked weird to me.
We aint been using that much water. Damn pressure is so high, like 80 PSI, that its a bitch to keep the faucets from dripping. But then I read that when the trains first came in 60-75 years ago, that the whole area was full of "truck" farms and orchards. Which were put out of business pretty much when CA, and now more recently, Mexico, began shipping fruits and veggies to American stupid markets.
But now, we all pretty much know that besides the dramatic rise in shipping costs, both of those areas are not all that culturally stable. I dont think Huck figured that out, but I bet he listened to somebody who had. It looks to me like somebody looked at Hubbard's Peak oil, and figured out that this region, which already produces a lotta food, what with the hydro power, the Nuke near the barge terminal, and the Fayetteville shale gas field... will be able to maintain food production at a very high level even after economic crisis.
The gas wells not only would provide propane to keep the tractors (I have one with a propane tank on it) and trucks of produce rolling down to the terminal, but could also be used to manufacture nitrogen fertilizer. I dunno if somebody told Huck all this was coming or not. But it reminds me of a response by Napoleon, who after hearing the talents and virtues of an officer suggested for promotion, he said:"I dont care about all that. Is he lucky?
No matter which way the economy goes, some areas are going to be lucky. Some are already fucked. When it comes to investment, be it in gold, commodities, or real estate, whatever you have will be worth dramatically more, or less, than it is now.
Markets open in about two hours. It will be interesting to see what happens. (Projections are that it will open with the Dow down somewhere from 400 to 600 points.)
Hodges apparently has some money. Either that, or he's one of those types who enjoys feeling like he has money by learning the ins and outs of the stock market. I've seen penniless guys who know that stuff backward and forward, because understanding The Almighty Market (pbuh) makes them feel like they have some worth even if they aren't gaining anything from it. I doubt Hodges is one of those, though. His attitudes regarding other subjects lead me to believe he actually does have money. It's always a good bet that those who make libertarian arguments are into either money or weed. Often, it's both.
So, he's probably a good guy to listen to if you buy into the premise that having money is a good thing. And who doesn't, these days? Just don't ask these types for advice on how to sponsor a starving child in Africa. That's one market they aren't interested in.
So, is this kind of commentary welcome at Genius, or does this seething nest of venom-wielding Dangerous Thinkers prefer to allow threads about stock tips to go unmolested? I've seen the knives come out furiously over anything mentioning love or emotion, but when it comes to money (the number one delusional attachment in this universe or any other), it's usually nothing but crickets....
I doubt Hodges is one of those, though. His attitudes regarding other subjects lead me to believe he actually does have money. It's always a good bet that those who make libertarian arguments are into either money or weed. Often, it's both.
So, he's probably a good guy to listen to if you buy into the premise that having money is a good thing. And who doesn't, these days? Just don't ask these types for advice on how to sponsor a starving child in Africa. That's one market they aren't interested in.
DHodges is an actuary. Actuaries are the elite in the insurance industry and are generally well-compensated. The profession is varied, but it is where money and mathematics meet, with the math heavily concentrated on probability, statistics, Bayesian analyses, etc. I haven't read all of his - or anyone else's - posts in this forum, but I think the term "these types" is painting with too broad a brush. He seems rational enough to me, but then again, I have not read every single one of his posts.
No one is disputing that he's rational in the general sense. He seems intelligent and perfectly capable of understanding and constructing logical arguments and so forth. What I'm suggesting is that he is attached to money. That is a matter of character more than of rationality. The "QRS" approach might disagree, but IMO they have yet to persuasively show how any level of rationality compels behavior, except perhaps through a long, difficult, and pitfall-ridden process of internalization which could take decades.
I tend to agree with those who hold that the rationally-derived "enlightenment" (as "QRS" views it) is really only a first step rather than a final one. Attaining the full intellectual conviction that a separate self is illusionary simply opens the door for us to begin internalizing that realization, which is a much longer and harder process. The entire subconscious mind must be confronted and restructured, which is about as tall an order as they come. Character is what counts here - our willingness to actually confront our entrenched attachments in a courageous way, rather than making excuse after excuse for why it is acceptable to go on behaving as if a separate self exists.
